Posts in category: Silver Buyers

Gold and silver price prediction today: Gold prices are showing signs of exhaustion, and traders should adopt a cautious approach, says Abhilash Koikkara, Head – Forex & Commodities, Nuvama Professional Clients Group. He shares his views on gold and silver:

MCX Gold Outlook

MCX Gold has shown signs of exhaustion after its recent rally and appears to have some room for a corrective move on the downside. Prices have been trading in a broad range, and the momentum seems to be cooling off as profit booking sets in. Currently, gold is likely to test the lower range of 117000–115000 levels before finding a strong support base for the next leg of the uptrend. The overall structure remains positive in the medium to long term, but short-term weakness cannot be ruled out.

A firm resistance is placed at 122500, and only a sustained close above this level will indicate renewed bullish momentum. Until then, prices may consolidate or drift lower amid global cues and dollar strength. Investors should watch for stability around the 117000–115000 zone, which could act as a crucial accumulation area.

Once prices rebound from these supports, a move back toward 122500 and higher levels can be expected. Traders are advised to remain cautious, adopt a disciplined stop-loss approach, and look for buying opportunities near support zones rather than chasing prices at higher levels. The broader outlook for gold continues to remain positive with healthy fundamentals.

MCX Gold Trading Strategy

• CMP: 120000
• Target: 115000
• Stoploss: 122500

MCX Silver Outlook

MCX Silver has been under pressure recently, showing signs of weakness after failing to sustain above key resistance levels. The metal has faced consistent selling at higher levels, indicating that the bulls are losing grip in the short term. With bearish momentum gaining traction, prices may continue to decline and could tumble toward the 141500 level, which serves as a crucial support zone. A break below this support may trigger further downside, while any recovery attempts are likely to face stiff resistance near 148700 levels.

The broader market sentiment for silver remains cautious, influenced by a stronger U.S. dollar, rising bond yields, and subdued demand from industrial users. Technically, the chart structure suggests that the recent rebound was merely a pullback within a broader corrective phase. Traders should remain vigilant, as volatility is expected to persist.

For short-term traders, selling on rallies with a strict stop-loss above 148700 could be a prudent strategy. On the other hand, long-term investors may consider accumulating near the 141500 support zone if prices stabilize. Overall, MCX Silver remains vulnerable to further downside pressure unless it breaks above 148700 decisively, which would indicate a shift in trend and open the door for a potential recovery.

MCX Silver Trading Strategy

• CMP: 145700
• Target: 141500
• Stoploss: 148700

With investors often struggling to determine the right mix between gold and silver and when to adjust their holdings, a simple approach may be the key, says Radhika Gupta, MD and CEO of Edelweiss Mutual Fund.

WHY A 50:50 MIX WORKS

“We believed both in the asset class being undervalued and in the power of a simple 50:50 gold–silver combination,” Gupta explained. Gold is widely seen as a safe haven, especially during uncertain times. Central bank buying, global macroeconomic concerns, and strong flows into ETFs have all supported gold prices.

Silver, meanwhile, brings a different advantage. “Silver provides the kick in the combo – thanks to its dual identity as both an industrial and a precious metal,” Gupta added.

BALANCING STABILITY AND GROWTH

Investors often face questions about timing: how much gold, how much silver, and when to exit each. Gupta believes simplicity is the answer.

“Gold provides the stability of large caps, and silver the alpha of midcaps,” she said. A 50:50 split keeps the investment balanced while still offering the potential for growth.

The appeal of this simple strategy has led to significant changes in fund flows and size. Many new funds are now launching similar Gold–Silver fund-of-funds (FoFs), following the same 50:50 approach.

Gupta emphasises that sometimes the best results come from keeping things straightforward. “Sometimes, the real magic lies in the power of simplicity,” she said.

Gold rate today: Bullion markets in Delhi saw a sharp surge on Monday, with gold climbing Rs 2,200 to a new high of Rs 1,16,200 per 10 grams as investors reacted to strong global cues and awaited US Federal Reserve commentary. On Friday, the precious metal of 99.9 per cent purity had closed at Rs 1,14,000 per 10 grams, according to the All India Sarafa Association.

Gold of 99.5 per cent purity also gained Rs 2,150 to a record Rs 1,15,650 per 10 grams, inclusive of all taxes, PTI reported. Analysts attributed the rise to bullish trends in international markets, continued inflows into exchange-traded funds, and ongoing interest from central banks.

“Both gold and silver traded at record levels in the domestic markets, tracking the bullish trend in international markets,” said Saumil Gandhi, Senior Analyst – Commodities at HDFC Securities. “A dovish signal from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) suggests that two additional rate cuts are likely by the end of this year, which could limit gains in the US dollar and Treasury yields while bolstering precious metal prices.”

Gold has added Rs 37,250 per 10 grams, or 47.18 per cent, so far this year, climbing from Rs 78,950 per 10 grams on December 31, 2024.

Silver also surged, rising Rs 4,380 to hit an all-time high of Rs 1,36,380 per kilogram, inclusive of all taxes. On Friday, it had ended at Rs 1,32,000 per kg. In 2025 so far, silver has gained Rs 46,680 per kilogram, or 52.04 per cent, from Rs 89,700 per kg at the end of last year.

Globally, spot gold rose more than 1 per cent to hit a record $3,728.43 per ounce.

“Spot gold surged further to a fresh all-time high of $3,728 per ounce as investors await remarks from several Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials later in the day and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s key speech on Tuesday for additional policy guidance,” said Kaynat Chainwala, AVP Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, as quoted PTI.

Praveen Singh, Head of commodities and currencies at Mirae Asset ShareKhan, said, “Investors will closely monitor Fed Governor Stephen Miran’s speech at the Economic Club of New York. US PMIs data report will be released on Tuesday which will provide further insights on the monetary policy outlook.”

Spot silver was trading 1.19 per cent higher at $43.61 per ounce and touched an intra-day high of $43.80 per ounce.

“Strong fundamentals supported silver prices, with tight supply helping maintain upward momentum. On the demand side, robust consumption from the solar, electric vehicle, and electronics sectors provided additional support,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.

With Gold and Silver hitting all-time high levels, the ETFs based on these commodities have offered return up to 44% in the current calendar year so far.

Gold based ETFs have offered an average return of 40.10% in the current calendar year so far and delivered returns up to 41% in the same time period. UTI Gold ETF gave the highest return of around 41.07% in 2025 so far, followed by Aditya Birla SL Gold ETF which gave 40.48% return in the same time period.

The counterparts – silver based ETFs have offered an average return of around 42.67% in the current calendar year so far and posted return up to 43.57% in the same time period. HDFC Silver ETF FoF has offered the highest return of around 43.57% in the current calendar year this far, followed by UTI Silver ETF which gave 43.36% return in the same time horizon.

Tata Silver ETF delivered the lowest return of around 41.20% in the current calendar year so far.

According to a note by Axis Mutual Fund, gold and silver have delivered strong rallies this year, with both metals reflecting their resilience and relevance as investors seek protection and stability in a volatile global environment.

The note further stated that Gold’s rise is being driven by a combination of factors including a weaker US dollar, expectations of interest rate cuts, political pressure on the Federal Reserve, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties that reinforce its position as a safe haven.

On the other hand, Silver is benefiting from robust industrial demand with applications in solar panels, electronics, semiconductors, and electric vehicles, giving it a unique dual role as both a safe-haven asset and a driver of long-term growth opportunities.

A market expert attributed this rally to geopolitical tensions and tariff-related uncertainties, and suggested that investors allocate 15–20% of their diversified portfolios to these precious metals.

“Precious metals, especially gold, perform very well in uncertain times. Due to geo political tensions and tariff related uncertainty, Gold and Silver prices have reached record highs. Silver is at a decade high due to strong industrial demand also. Investors should allocate money in Gold & Silver as an asset allocation tool and hedge against uncertainty. In my opinion 15-20% of a diversified portfolio should be in Gold and silver,” Pallav Agarwal, Certified Financial Planner, Bhava Services LLP shared with ETMutualFunds.

Demand for gold remains well supported globally as central banks continue to diversify reserves, ETFs attract strong inflows, and investors increase purchases of bars and coins, though jewellery consumption has moderated in price-sensitive markets, Axis Mutual Fund said in the note.

The fund house also said that the silver-backed ETFs/ETPs have seen record inflows – about 95 million ounces of net additions in the first half of 2025 (January-June). This H1 inflow has already exceeded the total silver ETF inflows of the entire year 2024. As a result, by mid-2025, global silver ETF holdings hit – 1.13 billion ounces, valued at over $40 billion – a record high.

The assets under management (AUM) of Gold ETF went up by 4% from Rs 64,777 crore in June to Rs 67,634 crore in July. On a yearly basis, the AUM has surged by nearly 96% from Rs 34,455 crore in July 2024.

In the last one year, the gold based ETFs have gained up to 50% with offering an average return of 47.43% in the same time period. On the other hand, silver ETFs have offered upto 47.63% return in the last one year and gave an average return of 46.88% in the same time period.

Axis Mutual Fund expects gold prices to be in the range of 3400$ to 3600$/oz this year and the prices are unlikely to see steep correction unless the US government stops criticizing the Federal Reserve or its members and there’s a big breakthrough in solving global trade and tariff problems. It further expects Silver to remain in range of 40$-42$/oz in this year.

Another analyst comments on the six to 12 month outlook for gold and silver and says that global factors like geopolitical events, US FED monetary policy and tariff related events will decide the future price movements of these precious metals.

“Global factors like geopolitical events, US FED monetary policy and tariff related events will decide the future price movements of these precious metals and if the current uncertainty subsides, the prices will cool down a bit else they will stay firm at elevated levels,” said Agarwal.

Gold funds are used for portfolio diversification. If you have a large portfolio, you can earmark a small percentage of the total portfolio (advisors say around 10%) to invest in gold. If you are starting out or you have a very small portfolio, you can give it a miss. Investors should remember that these funds won’t offer you greater returns year after year. They are supposed to offer you diversification and add stability to your portfolio.

Gold ETFs are exchange-traded funds that track the price of physical gold. Each unit of a Gold ETF is backed by a specific quantity of gold, usually equivalent to one gram. They are listed on stock exchanges, and you need a demat and trading account to buy and sell them.

One should always consider risk appetite, investment horizon, and goals before making any investment decisions.

Source: https://www.msn.com/en-in/money/markets/gold-and-silver-etfs-offer-up-to-44-return-in-2025-can-the-rally-sustain/ar-AA1Mb18k?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=68c121060f1b41358bbfd699d1e54afd&ei=20