Three reasons why Gold prices may hit ₹1.4-lakh mark sooner than you think

Gold has always held a special place in global finance — as a store of value, a hedge against inflation, and a symbol of security. But the latest rally is telling a deeper story. This time, it isn’t just inflation or retail demand that’s driving bullion higher. The forces at play are global, structural, and long-term in nature. 

On the technical side, charts are crystal clear. Gold price recently broke out of a bullish pole-and-flag pattern on the weekly time-frame, a setup that often precedes strong continuation rallies. The Fibonacci projection points toward $4,750 per ounce, nearly 35 per cent above current levels of $3,500. For Indian investors, this translates into a potential rise from about ₹1,06,000 per 10 grams today to ₹1,40,000–₹1,45,000, if broader macro factors remain steady. But price patterns only reflect underlying demand. And demand for gold has entered a new phase. This is not the first time we are projecting gold to scale new highs. As we have been reiterating since December 2024, our call has been to stay invested in gold.  

The Global Shift: From Dollar Dependence to Gold Confidence

The real story lies in how central banks worldwide are rewriting their reserve strategy. Escalating geopolitical tensions and growing distrust of the US dollar system have forced them to diversify aggressively into gold. In Q1 2025 alone, central bank purchases were 24 per cent above the five-year average, with China and Poland leading the charge.

The Ukraine war acted as a turning point. When over $300 billion of Russian reserves were frozen in 2022, many countries realised their dollar assets could be politically weaponised. Since then, gold has become the ultimate insurance policy — liquid, portable, and immune to sanctions. Annual central bank purchases now exceed 1,000 tonnes, more than double the decade average. This is not just buying; it is strategic realignment.

The India Angle: Domestic Flows Confirm the Trend

Closer home, investor appetite is equally visible. Gold ETFs in India saw sharp inflows. Between April and July 2025, investors poured over ₹2,000 crore in June and another ₹1,256 crore in July into these funds. The reversal from earlier outflows is telling — Indian households and institutions alike are repositioning gold as a serious portfolio allocation, not just a festive purchase.

The weaker rupee has amplified the effect. While international gold hit a record $3,500 per ounce in April 2025, Indian prices crossed the psychological barrier of ₹1 lakh per 10 grams, drawing more attention from retail and institutional investors.

Investor Takeaway: Align With the Trend, Stay Disciplined

With both technicals and fundamentals aligned, gold’s uptrend looks strong. But investors should approach it strategically. Allocate in tranches — avoid chasing spikes. A 5–10 per cent portfolio allocation offers insurance without overexposure. For traders, the chart target of $4,750/oz remains a realistic medium-term level, while for long-term investors, the bigger picture is clear: gold’s role has shifted from ornamental to existential.

 In short, gold is not just shining — it is asserting itself as the new anchor of global financial security.

Source: https://search.app/nUE15